Peace deal in limbo due to arrests of senior opposition figures, says expert

By Awan Achiek

The 2018 revitalized peace agreement remains in limbo following the arrest of First Vice President Riek Machar and several of his allies, as the implementation of key pending tasks remains shrouded in uncertainty due to the withdraw of opposition figures from the peace implementation mechanisms.

Prof. Abraham Kuol Nyuon, Principal of the Graduate College at the University of Juba, said that the current tensions between President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his deputy Machar, threatens the full implementation of the peace deal.

“In fact, I can say that the 2018 peace deal is at a dormant stage, which means it could not be categorized as a dead peace and it could not be categorized as a peace deal that has collapsed,” Kuol told The Dawn in an interview on Wednesday.

He noted that the ongoing military clashes between the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) and Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in opposition (SPLA-IO) led by Machar, including the recent cabinet reshuffle  by President Kiir that kicked out opposition figures, have exacerbated the tensions, further jeopardizing peace implementation.

Kuol urged the political leaders to seek better ways to exit out of the peace agreement without returning the country back to war.

“There are two alternatives only. The first alternative is for them to be able to say we are going for elections, whether there might be fair elections or not, so that the people will be elected by the people who could be the ones that could take over the leadership,” he said.

Secondly, Kuol suggested President Kiir chooses Machar, as his running mate for office at the upcoming elections to prevent relapse into violence.

In addition, Kuol suggested that Kiir and Machar nominate their respective successors to go for elections, adding that without these options, the parties would continue to extend the transitional period.

“If those two alternatives are not working, it doesn’t matter how many years this peace agreement will work; it will be extended over and over and over until even the leaders themselves who are in power will cease to exist,” he disclosed.

On 9 April 2025, Stephen Par Kuol, a member of the political bureau of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in opposition was elected as interim chairman by a faction of party supporters to steer the party in the absence of Machar who is under house arrest in Juba.

However, Machar’s supporters have accused Par of working with the SPLM party under President Kiir to depose Machar from the party leadership.