1.4 million in South Sudan at risk from climate impacts, flooding

By Jenifer James

The government of South Sudan has confirmed that at least 1.4 million people are expected to be affected by the impacts of climate change and seasonal flooding across six states in the coming months.

Speaking exclusively to the Dawn newspaper on Thursday, the Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management, Albino Akol Atak, said the warning follows a regional climate outlook issued by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which forecasts a 55% likelihood of above-normal rainfall over parts of the Greater Horn of Africa between June and September 2025.

“The country is expected to experience above-normal rainfall, so we are also going to witness the same situation that we experienced last year in 2024. As the government, we are preparing ourselves.”

According to Atak, a recent survey has identified two scenarios. “One scenario is that 1.4 million people will be affected, mainly in six states, including Unity State, Upper Nile, Jonglei State, Warrap State, and parts of Lakes State. These are the areas expected to be covered by water,” Atak said.

Atak noted that the second scenario outlines a more severe impact, estimating that up to 4.4 million people could be affected if conditions worsen.

Experts believe the first scenario is more likely. “These scenarios are still being analysed, but according to our technical advice, scenario one is likely to happen,” he said. “We are now preparing, together with the affected state authorities, for any eventualities.”

Atak said that the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs is coordinating with state governments and international partners to develop early response plans and mitigate the potential humanitarian crisis.

He added that the government is delivering food to the most affected and vulnerable people and will continue reaching out to all vulnerable individuals in South Sudan, wherever they are.

Last month, IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre urged regional and national authorities to take proactive measures to prepare for and respond effectively during the launch of the seasonal climate outlook for June to September 2025.

The Deputy Executive Secretary of IGAD, H.E. Mr. Mohamed Ware, emphasised the urgency of collective action, stating: “The Greater Horn of Africa is experiencing unprecedented climate extremes, ranging from droughts and floods to unpredictable rainfall, putting our food systems, water resources, and livelihoods at serious risk. We must institutionalise climate services and work together across borders and sectors to ensure climate risks are integrated into every decision. The future of our region depends on it.”